01 June 2023 marks the start of the hurricane season for the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Following three years of above normal activity, which coincided with La Nina events, most of the hurricane season forecasting agencies have predicted a Hurricane season with near normal activity. A year with normal activity, based on data from 1991 to 2020, would produce 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. This year’s predictions considered competing factors, some of which could suppress tropical cyclone development and others that could enhance development.
- The NOAA Climate Prediction Center scientists in their forecast released on 25th May 2023, predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. They have forecasted with a confidence level of 70%, the formation of twelve to seventeen (12-17) named storms of which five to nine (5-9) could become hurricanes including one to four (1-4) major hurricanes.
- The Colorado State University team in their latest forecast released on 13th April 2023, predict the formation of thirteen (13) named storms, of which six (6) will develop into hurricanes with three (3) attaining major hurricane status.
- The Tropical Storm Risk team on 6th April 2023predicted a season with slightly below normal activity with the formation of twelve (12) named storms, of which six (6) will develop into hurricanes with three (3) attaining major hurricane status.
The Saint Lucia Met Services advises all Saint Lucian residents and interests in our region, to exercise due diligence in their planning and preparation for the hurricane season. We encourage you to consistently follow regional weather developments and to pay particular attention to local weather reports, advisories and bulletins issued by the Saint Lucia Meteorological Services. The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) will also be issuing important instructions and information which you are strongly advised to follow.
Pre-season rainfall over Saint Lucia this year has generally been near normal and a normal to below normal trend is expected in the coming months. Nevertheless, heavy rainfall episodes are an expected feature of our rainy season and in general, the occurrence of flooding and landslides will remain a major concern this year.
The heat season which runs from August to October is forecasted to be warmer than normal, thereby increasing the chances and duration of warm spells and heat waves, which is an added concern this hurricane season.
The Saint Lucia Meteorological Services urges the public to be prepared for this Hurricane Season. We will, as usual be utilizing all available communication channels and facilities, including local news and social media, to transmit timely information to the Saint Lucian populace and other interested parties.
The hurricane season ends on 30th November 2023.
Photo: Wikipedia
